Defining Deflation
Coming off of an extended period of relatively high inflation, retailers are suddenly forced to contend with a new issue, deflation. What are the consequences thereof and how will retailers deal with this new obstacle?
An important distinction to be made early-on is the difference between disinflation and deflation. The former refers to a period during which inflation is still positive but decreasing over time. Deflation on the other hand, defines a period of negative inflation, i.e. Inflation is at, or lower than, 0%. Generally speaking, 2% inflation is regarded as a safe buffer against deflation.
Effectively what results during a period of internal deflation, is that the cost of keeping a SKU on shelf increases while its value decreases. This puts retailers in a difficult position as they literally cannot afford to drop prices to drive revenue. Furthermore, it may lead to consumers assuming that prices will continue to drop which in turn leads them to put off purchases, further exacerbating the situation.
Shoprite has managed to keep its head above water during increasingly trying economic times. Its turnover in the quarter ended September grew by 9.7%, and its core business, which includes the Shoprite chain, the U-Save Shoprite format and Checkers, grew turnover by 8.5% while internal food inflation averaged negative 1.5%. It has been a while since such negative growth has been experienced and it will certainly make efforts to stimulate turnover growth and increase gross profit margins more challenging.
Pick n Pay are facing similar problems as they admitted last week that “there had been significant pressure on the [their] margins as food inflation was below the growth in the consumer price index.” In August last year, internal food inflation was at 9.8% but has since fallen to 0.1%.
Although early signs are showing, it is yet uncertain if retailers are headed for full deflation. If the current rapid disinflation can be stemmed, it might be possible to disregard the former all together.
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