Positive Forecast

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Along with summer comes the promise of better days, and not just weather-wise.

In the recent past Pick n Pay have a received a bit of a bashing from the media most of which wasn’t entirely unjustified. Failing to live to up to ambitions, some their own, the group suffered somewhat. However this was, and is, in the face of particularly adverse conditions; an unfavourable trading environment, striking employees, and the continuing recession recovery. This makes it all the more encouraging to see positive developments coming from the group. They enjoyed strong growth in certain areas, including Liquor, Clothing and Private Label. In the case of the latter, they saw 11% growth which now accounts for 14% of packaged food sales, with further innovation to come. Furthermore, by implementing enhanced operating efficiencies and improved cost management they managed to moderate other negative factors. All this and more was covered in their recently released trading statement.

After weeks of frustration it seems that the end of the public sector strike is finally in sight. “’We have a deal. The unions that will sign from today (Wednesday, October 20, 2010) constitute a majority,’ Chris Klopper, a spokesperson for the Independent Labour Caucus federation, said on Tuesday.” Even so, the damage has been done and the road to recovery is sure not to be an easy one.

The Liquor industry made headlines this week as it was shown that it accounts for 4.4% of the country’s GDP. This thanks to the wide economic reach it has, making contributions from “manufacturing, packaging and marketing the company's products, and job support includes people the company employs and people who benefit indirectly from the sale of its products, such as bartenders.” SABMiller also made headlines as they boosted their SA sales by 3% for the first half of the year.

Here’s to hoping for an extended forecast of clear skies.


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Retail trade sales update

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Retail trade sales rose by 4.6% in August 2010 compared with the same period last year, according to data released by StatsSA on Wednesday. The growth, although positive, is in stark contrast to many predictions. Yet, it was not completely unexpected, "the slowdown I think is more than what one would have anticipated, obviously part of the slowdown is the fact that it's post the World Cup, and there is no doubt that the World Cup did boost sales from May," said Kevin Lings, Chief Economist at Stanlib, to Reuters. This easing of sales has been anticipated for several weeks in large part due to the deflation of the post World Cup sales bubble.
In other data released by Stats SA, it was seen that retail sales grew by 6.7 percent in the three months to August, compared with the same period a year ago, also at constant prices.

In the manufacturing sector the atmosphere is equally glum as factory output only rose by 5.3%, a much steeper decline than anticipated when compared with the same period last year. During the month of August production fell 3.6%, a large part of the dip being attributed to the strike in the automotive sector.

Pick n Pay are having a tough week as they juggle local and foreign situations. In Australia the outlook is still uncertain with regards to the proposed sale of their Australian based Franklins business to Metcash. On Monday, Pick n Pay provided an update of their dealings down under which included an alternative exit strategy. The latter was partly due to the complications the South African retailer was having with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). “The alternative exit strategy is the sale of the Franklins stores and other strategic assets individually or in groups via a tender process.” On the domestic front they’re facing some 27000 employees who are preparing to go on an extended strike after their wage demands were not met.

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What impact could Walmart have on the South African retail industry?

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Two weeks on from Walmart’s announcement that they’d put in an offer for Massmart and local media is still abuzz with speculation, forecasts, and warnings. The latter being the dominant topic, and it’s coming from all angles.

Analysts considering the impact of Walmart’s entry into the local market have warned that local retailers may have to up their game to remain competitive in the new market. Walmart’s sheer size gives it an enormous advantage “[they] can source products cheaper and pass (savings) onto consumers.” President and CEO of the retailer, Doug McMillon, said one the company’s top priorities is saving people money and establishing themselves on the African continent was a great opportunity to deliver on that mission.

Retailers aren’t the only ones who could be in for a shock; local producers also fear the effects of the giant retailers presence in the local market. Whilst consumers can look forward to cheaper goods, local producers might face a slump in business as Walmart could potentially source cheaper products from abroad. Some producers have taken solace in the hope that the retailer will still have to source fresh produce locally.

There is also one warning headed in the opposite direction, “Walmart can’t bulldoze unions.” Cosatu have threatened to call on the government to supervise and monitor the planned purchase. With near on 2 million members in affiliated unions in major economic sectors, Cosatu have the power to make things very unpleasant for the American retailer.

Whether consumer, retailer, supplier, or producer, Walmart’s entry into the African market is going to affect us all, question is: how?

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Wal-Mart enter Africa though Massmart offer

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This week saw the realization of what many have speculated for quite some time, Walmart finally chose their African bride. The American retail giant made a $3.4 billion offer for South Africa’s Massmart and, the companies have allowed one another mutual periods of exclusivity. If successful, Walmart would acquire Massmart’s 290 stores in 13 countries. Whilst this pales in comparison to Shoprite’s 1166 stores in 16 countries, it still outweighs Pick n Pay’s portfolio of 90 stores outside of South Africa. That being said, Walmart had a lot more to consider when making the offer than just sheer size.

“Massmart is the closest fit to Wal-Mart’s retail style. Shoprite and Pick n Pay are mostly food retailers, while Massmart sales comprise 53% food and liquor, 42% general merchandise and 13% home improvement. The company’s stores range from Game, the closest thing SA has to a US-style discounter, to Builders Warehouse and Makro.”

Amongst those opposed to the deal is Saccawu who hope to contact “[the]Minister of Economic Development Ebrahim Patel as well as members of civil society and the international trade union movement to help it ensure that there would be no erosion of workers' rights as a result of Wal-Mart acquiring Massmart for R30 billion, as proposed on Monday.”

Pick n Pay also made headlines recently when 27000 Saccawu members went on strike last week Friday as a result of deadlock over ongoing wage negotiations. Furthermore, they also garnered attention when Australian regulators became concerned with Pick n Pay’s planned sale of its 85 Franklin’s stores. The sale would give the retailer the impetus it’s looking for to “upgrade and revamp its distribution network in its South African business” to better compete with rivals.

It’s clear that the battle for the retail crown has only just begun and shows no signs of slowing and, with all the main players so closely matched it won’t be one to be missed.

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